CLIENT’S CHALLENGE

• The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) were both coming into effect in Japan simultaneously.
• Dairy and cheese was well-known as a rare bright spot of growth in the Japanese consumer market.
• However, all the major dairy countries exporting to Japan, except the US, were included in one of these two agreements and would benefit from the agreements.
• The US Client needed to understand urgently how these two agreements were expected to impact the Japanese market for dairy imports over time.

OUR SOLUTION

• Meros developed a comprehensive methodology using both industry interviews and historical trade data to analyze and make market projection about the impact on the trade agreements.
• We approached the problem both quantitatively and qualitatively, looking at existing econometric analysis, the relationship between price increases of dairy products and import purchases and Japanese population decline and aging.
• We interviewed Japanese industry stakeholders, to make the best numerical assumptions regarding demand for both domestic dairy demand and imports.

IMPACT

• Meros’ research became the basis of our client’s official, public position towards Japan trade policy and was widely reported in the media.
• Our analysis showed that the CPTPP and JEEPA will put the US at a significant disadvantage against other dairy suppliers and the US could lose critical market share under these new trade conditions.
• Our client felt that our data justified advocating to the US government for a US-Japan bilateral agreement in order maintain their Japan market share.
• The final report is available here:  Analyzing the Impact of the CPTPP and Japan-EU EPA on US Dairy Exports to Japan.