01 Feb

New study projects CPTPP and Japan-EU trade agreements will reduce US dairy exports to Japan and boost competitors

Posted by Team Meros in News, Publications

A Meros Consulting study released Wednesday by the U.S. Dairy Export Council projects that the two new trade agreements made by Japan will benefit global dairy suppliers such as the EU and Oceania, while costing the US dairy export industry billions of dollars in lost sales.

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) entered into force on Dec 30, 2018 and the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) went into effect today, February 1st, 2019. All major dairy suppliers to the Japanese market, including Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Ireland and France, are included in one of these two agreements. Only the United States is missing, after pulling out of TPP negotiations in January, 2017.

Through industry interviews to assess price sensitivity and product substitutability, together with extensive historical data analysis, Meros developed a model to quantify the future economic impact of those agreements on key U.S. dairy products and ingredients over the next two decades. The study showed that the US could double its market share with a level playing field. However, without quick action by the US to regain competitiveness in the market, US dairy exports will be at a strong competitive disadvantage, particularly for cheese, whey and lactose, resulting in lost US sales of $5.4 billion over 21 years.

Now is a particularly critical time for global cheese suppliers to Japan as Japan’s cheese imports are expected to show a 1.6-fold expansion over the next 10 years under CPTPP and JEEPA. As a result, the US dairy industry is supporting further bilateral trade talks with Japan. As USDEC CEO and President Tom Vilsack commented in a January 30th news release, “U.S. dairy farmers and processors strongly support the Administration’s launch of trade talks with Japan. We hope this report provides fresh ammunition to our negotiators about why a strong U.S.-Japan agreement is so important for American agriculture.”

U.S. Dairy Export Council’s release of Meros Consulting’s Analyzing the Impact of the CPTPP and Japan-EU EPA on US Dairy Exports to Japan can be downloaded here:

Analyzing the Impact of the CPTPP and Japan-EU EPA on US Dairy Exports to Japan

 

22 Nov

Meros in the Media: The Disappearing US-China Soybean Trade

Posted by Team Meros in News

Meros discusses how China was able to substitute US soybeans so quickly.

Meros’ Lucia Vancura recently chatted with Nathan VanderKlippe of Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper about how China was able to so quickly and completely eliminate US soybean imports in the last few months since the 2018 marketing year started in September. Did they find alternative suppliers? Did they substitute for other feed ingredients?  How could US soybean exports to China, which are 25% of US production, really be substituted out so quickly, particularly since US soybeans are still price competitive with Brazil, Argentina and other sources, despite the 25% tariffs?

The Chinese government may not have explicitly forbidden Chinese traders from importing US soybeans, but as VanderKlippe reports from our conversation “in a country where political favour remains a key factor in corporate success, China’s reach extends deep into the private sector, too.” The Chinese government does not need to issue a ban on buying US soybeans. It just has to send a clear message that avoiding US soybeans, despite the favorable price, is the expected approach.

The full article is behind a paywall but available here:  https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-soybean-trade-shows-resolve-of-china-as-it-pushes-back-on-us-demands/

In the short-term, since September, China has used a variety of tools to make up for the elimination of US soybeans. This has included increased soybeans from Brazil and other countries and increased use of soy protein substitutes, including rapeseed or canola meal, pea and domestic Chinese DDGS. The Chinese government also released new guidelines for a lower-protein swine feed ratio that decreases the amount of soy protein needed (the Chinese soy protein ratio in feed has been much higher than, for example, in the US swine feed ratio because the price of soy has been so reasonable but there is not necessarily a nutritional need for so much soy in China’s swine feed) and China’s major feed mills have agreed to these new standards. Other measures have included releasing soybeans from government stockpiles and using more of their domestic soybeans for feed (rather than food).

Looking at the longer term, China may import some US soybeans later this year to fill the remaining gaps, but their on-going efforts to find alternative suppliers, substitute products and a big-picture effort by China to invest and expand in agriculture supply channels world-wide are only opening more opportunities and risk diversification for Chinese traders. The longer the trade war goes on, the more chance Chinese traders will more permanently replace US soybeans in their trading portfolio.

 

Meros Consulting is a Tokyo-based strategic business advisory. We work with companies and governments globally to advising on trade dynamics and support business development in food and agriculture industries.

 

28 Sep

Kanpai! Sake needs new markets, in Japan and out

Posted by Team Meros in Market Trends, News

Kanpai!  Meros joined the discussion on NHK World’s current BizBuzz episode on the Japanese sake industry.  The episode can be seen streaming on NHK World for the next few weeks.

Sake, also called nihonshu, is an alcoholic beverage brewed from rice, water and the critical ingredient koji mold which helps convert the starch in rice into sugar to be fermented. Although sake is often called “rice wine” in English, this is a bit of a misnomer, as the production process is closer to beer brewing than to wine.

Within Japan, sake consumption has decreased to a minor share of the alcohol market (6%).  Sake began to be thought of as an “old man’s drink”, with younger Japanese consumers preferring beer, wine, shochu (Japanese distilled spirits) or other drinks.  With Japan’s shrinking population, Japan’s venerable sake breweries have needed to think strategically about how to maintain their industry – growing share within Japan as well as finding new markets overseas.

Japan has been seeing  growth both in younger brewers and new business models, such as Asahi Shuzo’s Dassai sake who marketed directly to Tokyo restaurants or and  start-up  Nihonshu Oendan which supports the sale and marketing of craft sakes from several breweries.  Sake brewery tours, like wine tours in California, are growing in popularity among both Japanese and international tourists.

Overseas too there has been increased interest in sake, both because of the increase in sushi and Japanese restaurants, as well as the inclusion of a sake category in major wine competitions.  For example, in Japanese sake’s top export market, the US, most Americans who have tried sake say their first experience was in a Japanese restaurant. Still, sake is a negligible share of even the US market.   To really have an impact in overseas markets, sake will need additional consumer education and will ultimately need to break out of the limited Japanese restaurant market.  Organizations like the Sake Samurai Program, Sake Education Council and WSET Sake Certification as well as direct-to-consumers sales models like Kanematsu’s Sake Network for the EU are looking to address these issues.

In this episode, Meros’ Lucia Vancura, sake expert Rebekah Wilson-Lye and host Jon Kabira discusses the changing sake market, the rise of sake sommeliers, pairing sake with non-Japanese cuisine challenges and opportunities for the sake market to grow overseas.