15 Oct

Five Key Trends in Global Agricultural Land Investing

Posted by Team Meros in Market Trends, Publications

The Global AgInvesting Asia 2018 conference was held October 2nd and 3rd at the Tokyo American Club, marking the third time the event has been held in Tokyo since it moved from its previous host city of Singapore. The event aims to help Japanese institutional investors gain a better understanding of overseas agricultural investment opportunities and what makes these opportunities attractive. The event was an interesting chance to hear updates on a wide range of topics, including agricultural land investment as real estate investment, investment into agricultural distribution businesses, opportunities in agritech and developments in agricultural insurance.

Because agricultural land investment is a dynamic investment area, with growing interest from institutional investors, here is a summary of some of the key trends in agricultural investing, based on presentations and discussions at Global AgInvesting Tokyo as well as on our own knowledge.  A pdf version of this discussion can be downloaded at the end of this post.

A Global AgInvesting Panel with Takuma Yoshida (Chief Executive Officer, SEIRYU Asset Management, Ltd.), Masaya Hara Managing Representative, Albourne Partners Japan), Yoshifumi Kida (Manager, Foreign Equity and Alternative Investment Department, Nippon Life Insurance Company), Akitoshi Yamada (Managing Director & Head of Japan, Patheon Ventures (Asia) Limited).  Photo: Meros Consulting

Trend 1: Agricultural land investment greatly increased in the 2010s

Investment in agricultural land by institutional investors such as pension funds had been growing gradually since the 1980s, but had become increasingly controversial in the early 2000s. A 2008 report by the international non-profit GRAIN gained widespread attention for its analysis of increasing global farmland investment and their characterization of this foreign investment in agricultural land as land grabbing. Large-scale investment in agricultural land was hit with heavy criticism, especially as agricultural commodity prices were soaring at that time due to tight supply. Still, according to financial data service Preqin’s database on fund procurement by agricultural land investment funds, agricultural land investments by institutional investors accelerated further in the 2010s after the financial crisis eased.

This acceleration in agriculture and agricultural land investments was driven by institutional investors such as pension funds, government funds, university funds and large family offices. Institutional investors have been looking to expand alternative investments and farmland investment has become an attractive option for balancing risk and return. Agricultural land investment can become a way to hedge risk, since farmland prices are continuing to increase and there is relatively stable revenue from land rent or agricultural product sales. The fact that agricultural investments have a limited relationship with traditional asset investments such as stocks and bonds is also a plus.

Interest from the agriculture side in attracting funding has also increased significantly. South America, particularly Brazil, has abundant unused farmland and Eastern European countries such as the Ukraine still have opportunities for investing in large-scale agricultural development. Even in developed countries such as Australia, Canada and the United States, farmers are increasingly borrowing land from investment funds who have purchased farmland, and investment funds themselves are increasingly entering the farm management business. This is because farmer debt is rising in these countries, as farms try to increase scale for greater efficiency, while the capacity of individual farmers to continue to buy new farmland is limited. When farmland is consolidated under an investment fund and put up for sale, it is common for another investment fund to purchase the whole piece of land rather than selling plots separately to individual farmers.

Trend 2: An investment model has been developed for managing agricultural land investments

One reason behind the increase of investment funding for farmland is the development of an investment model to manage agricultural funds, using US-style limited partnerships.

Source: Meros Consulting

Agricultural land management requires highly specialized management capabilities. There are diverse risk factors to cope with including unpredictable weather and changing market prices; operational environments and systems differ greatly from one region to another. However, thanks to the growth of fund management companies with General Partners (GP) who are specialized in managing farmland in specific regions or countries, an investment model has been established where foreign institutional investors such as pension funds who have no background in local agricultural situations can participate as a limited liability partner (LP), without being involved in management and only receive dividends.

Major agricultural land fund management companies include TIAA Asset Management under the umbrella of the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America (TIAA), which possess about 770,000 ha of grains, oil seeds, sugar cane and wine grape production in Australia, Brazil, the US, Eastern Europe and other regions through multiple funds; Hancock Agricultural Investment Group under a major life insurance company Manulife, which holds about 140,000 ha of fruit trees, nuts, grains and other farm produce production mainly in the US, Canada, Australia; and Proterra Investment Partners, an investment team formerly part of Cargill which invests in agricultural land and businesses in Australia, the US and Asia.

Trend 3:  Investments have been slightly slowing recently due to lower returns

On the other hand, some funds are withdrawing from agricultural land investments. For example, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, a public pension investment organization which purchased about 97,000 ha of farmland in Canada and the US after 2012, revised its plan to expand agricultural land investments in 2017 and has decided to focus more on down-stream agricultural industries such as distribution. This is due to the fact that almost half of their farmland was located in Saskatchewan, Canada where regulations on agricultural land investments were tightened, and also because land investments did not proceed as expected in Australia, New Zealand and Brazil. [1]

In addition, global market prices for agricultural products have recently been decreasing, and the situation is becoming even more uncertain due to the US-China trade war. The price of agricultural land has soared due to inflow of investment funds, and so the return on agricultural investment (total of income and capital gains) is decreasing. As such, agricultural investment is slowing compared to the past, even though agricultural investment by institutional investors is continuing to increase.

Trend 4: There is a growing perception that agricultural land investment can have positively impact sustainable development and environmental goals

Despite the recent slow-down, investment in agriculture is still considered to have promising prospects in the mid to long term, given the increasing global population and the need to grow food supply.  Compared to 2008, when concerns about land grabbing created intense controversy, agricultural land investment has gained a more positive image over the last 10 years and institutional investors have increasingly been able to use their agricultural land investments as evidence of their commitment to responsible ESG (Environment, Society and Governance) investing or their support of the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals).

As a response to concerns that foreign agricultural investments were simply land grabs, the World Bank and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) jointly formulated the “Principles for Responsible Agricultural Investment (PRAI)” in 2010. This reflected the UN’s “Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI)” enacted in 2006, which laid out guidelines for institutional investors to incorporate consideration of ESG issues into their decision-making process. ESG investments are expanding and the number of institutions that have signed PRI exceeded 2,000 in 2018.

At the same time, the concept of “impact investing”, initially advocated in 2007 by the Rockefeller Foundation, has also steadily gained mainstream acceptance, as seen, for example, by the establishment of the G8 Social Impact Investment Task Force at the 2013 G8 Summit. As a result, the idea that investment, if done carefully, can have positive social impact became increasingly widespread.

The SDGs adopted at the 2015 UN Summit further strengthened this trend. Unlike past global development goals, the SDGs target not only developing countries but also developed countries and encourage the active involvement of private enterprises to contribute to reaching the SDGs. In particular, agricultural land investment has been seen as potential tool for achieving Goal 2, “End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture”.

In other words, there is growing discussion about how responsible agricultural investments can contribute to solving global food challenges through environmentally friendly and sustainable farmland management, as well as by optimizing limited land and water resources.

Trend 5: Japanese institutional investors are beginning to show interest in overseas agricultural investment 

Japanese institutional investor Nippon Life Insurance Company (Nissay) announced a JPY 10 billion investment (around USD 90 million) in an Australian farmland investment fund from the Hancock Natural Resource Group under Manulife, in April 2018. It is the first farmland investment by a large Japanese life insurance company. Also, SEIRYU Asset Management, a fund operator of the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), has also started working with a forestry investment fund abroad and, according to our discussions at Global AgInvesting, expects to continue exploring farmland investment opportunities.

Japanese companies do have strong interest in foreign investment. However, there are few successful cases of agricultural investments. In 2018, Mitsui closed its Brazilian subsidiary Multigrain, its grain production and distribution unit, and other Japanese companies have hesitated to enter the agricultural land investment market. Still, with the entry of Nissay into the market this year, there may begin to be more interest by other Japanese companies, who carefully watch the first movers.

[1] Reuters, 2017.4.27, “Exclusive: Canada’s CPPIB pension fund plans farmland retreat – sources”

Five Trends in Agricultural Land Investment 2018 (Meros Consulting)

21 Sep

Meros presents overview of agricultural opportunities in the Russian Far East

Posted by Team Meros in Market Trends, Publications

Meros presented an overview of the agricultural opportunities in the Russian Far East at a seminar on September 13 held by the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) and hosted at Nomura Research Institute. Japanese industry players and government authorities are watching Russian Far East development closely and over 40 participants from Japanese corporations, investment firms and think tanks attended the event.

With dramatic ongoing depopulation in the region – population is projected to decline by over 30% in next 30 years – the Russian government has been implementing various measures to attract people and industry to the region and to increase economic development. These measures have included establishing fourteen Territories of Advanced Development (ToR) sites where the federal government have put particular effort into helping local governments attract foreign direct investments (FDI) through numerous schemes, as well as granting one hectare of land for free to Russian citizens who can utilize the land.

Due to the stagnating prices of oil and other energy resources, the importance of the agricultural, forestry and fishery sectors in the regional economy is rising. The share of agriculture and forestry in gross regional production of the Russian Far East increased from 3.4% in 2010 to 4.8% in 2014. Moreover, the Russian government has placed an import ban on many agricultural products from countries including the US, the EU, New Zealand and Australia as a counter measure against economic sanctions. This has all led to the new Russian policy of aiming for complete food self-sufficiency by 2020. Thus, agriculture is one of the key sectors emphasized by the Russian government in their regional development plans.

Because of the geopolitical importance of the Far East region for Japan, the Japanese government also considers Japanese involvement in regional development to be important. For this reason, the Japanese and Russian governments have agreed to have a series of agricultural vice-ministerial dialogues in 2016, and the first dialogue was held June 19, 2017. This year MAFF has also organized the Russian Far East Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery Platform to exchange information with the Japanese private sector as well as to facilitate private investments in the region. The Platform’s first meeting was in Feb 2017.

Meros sees various opportunities in the Russian Far East, in terms of import substitution as well as future export potential of certain Russian agricultural products. Oilseeds (soybean), grain, livestock and vegetable industries are already attracting various investors.

However, successful business development in the Russian Far East also faces serious challenges, including an unpredictable political climate, extremely high distribution costs, labor scarcity, difficulty in long-term financing and ongoing international sanctions against Russia. There are also complaints of lack of transparency or availability of information on Russian business partners or investment targets. Since the much of the current large-scale agricultural development in the Far East is strongly driven by Russian government policy and rely on government support like subsidies and tax exemptions, potential opportunities must be evaluated within the full context of the economic and political environment.

The Far East agricultural industries also face domestic risks such as difficulty in livestock disease control, possible wheat export taxes and competition with Chinese products, along with the most critical challenge – the small and increasingly shrinking regional market. Therefore, export market development is expected to be an unavoidable.

Some opportunities that appear particularly bright, based on the current supply and demand situation, include:

Soybeans

Soybean production in the Russian Far East was around 1.5 million mt in 2016, which accounted for more than 40% of the total production in Russia. Since Russia does not have enough soybean and other protein feed ingredient domestic production, to expand Far East soybean production was one of the ag-policy agenda. The Amur region established a “Soybean Cluster” and has expanded production and processing rapidly. Major oil mills in the Far East region include Rusagro, Amuragrostsentr and ANK holdings. Amuragrostsentr is currently planning to develop an isolated soy protein factory in the Soybean Cluster with a Chinese co-investor.

The Russian government had been providing a 50% subsidy for soybean transportation from the Far East to European Russia in order to increase soybean self-sufficiency. After Russia’s WTO accession in 2012, the export tax (20%) on soybeans was eliminated, and export opportunities become a reality. Although it is unclear if transportation subsidies from the Far East to European Russia are still in effect, non-GM soybean exports to Asian countries could expand under the current circumstances, which include favorable exchange rates.

Soybean meal production also has exceeded regional feed demand, which also indicates the potential to increase export of soybean meal or other vegetable protein products.

Livestock

Livestock is another area attracting investment, especially swine production. Current regional production supplies only 26% of the regional demand. Chicken accounts for 36% of meat production; pork is 32%; beef is 24%. Only swine production has been gradually increasing over the last five years, which will be doubled or tripled within another 2-3 years with investments from Mercy Trade, Rusagro and Skifagro. Although the region is struggling to control diseases, like African swine fever and avian flu several meat processing companies have received approval to export heat-treated products to Japan.

Vegetables

Vegetable production is another industry expected to expand. Regional vegetable production currently supplies only 46% of regional demand.

The Russian government reimburses 20% of the cost to buy and set up greenhouses, under its overall policy to increase self-sufficiency by 2020. With such government support, it is planned to expand 350 ha greenhouse area in Russia, which is 15% increase from the current greenhouse area of 2,300 ha in 2016. There are various plans on investments in Far East too, and Meros estimates these will add another 40 ha of greenhouse area within the next few years if these current plans materialize.