EU Agricultural Mission to Japan highlights interest in consumer demographics, organic markets and retail innovation

This week Meros’ Managing Director Chisa Ogura presented on Japanese consumer food trends to delegates of the High Level EU Agricultural Mission to Japan led by EU Agriculture Commissioner Phil Hogan. There were over 70 delegates, including agricultural industry reps, SMEs and farmers from throughout the EU, all looking to understand how the new EU-Japan EPA can benefit food and agricultural trade between the EU and Japan.

It was a full house and we got great questions from the delegates on organic trends (especially in wine and beef), the impact of demographic changes and the notoriously fast turnover in new retail products.

Japanese consumers now spend more on bread than rice, more on meat than seafood and more on wine than sake, with cheese and yogurt consumption growing rapidly. This brings many potential opportunities for EU food and agriculture to develop new business in Japan.

Nevertheless, to successfully build a business in Japan, careful understanding of the characteristics of the Japan market is of course critical. For example, one area of interest to delegates was the fact that while countries like Denmark (227€ annual per capita spending), Germany (116€ per capita) and France (101€ per cap) have booming organic markets, consumer interest in organic products has been slow to catch on in Japan (only 8€ per capita).

The price premium for organic is relatively small in Japan, compared to some of its Asian neighbors, where organic products can command an extremely high price premium. Japanese consumers also tend to be convinced that domestic conventionally grown agricultural products are already safe and healthy and are less willing to pay a premium for organic certified products. In addition, organic agriculture is difficult in wet and humid Japan and this has resulted in fewer Japanese companies producing, promoting and educating on organic practices. While EU organic products are welcome in Japan, more of the burden for promotion and consumer education will fall on the EU side.

Other consumer trends that Meros highlighted included the Japanese consumer expectation for constant relaunches and limited editions of retail food and beverage products, which contrasts with many EU exporters’ focus on classic and authenticity, rather than innovation.  Not only is this seasonal packaging an issue, but urban Japanese consumers tend to bring their groceries home by hand or in a bicycle basket, to a kitchen with extremely limited storage space. Responsiveness to these Japanese consumer lifestyle realities can greatly improve EU exporters’ marketing and promotion strategies.

 

New study projects CPTPP and Japan-EU trade agreements will reduce US dairy exports to Japan and boost competitors

A Meros Consulting study released Wednesday by the U.S. Dairy Export Council projects that the two new trade agreements made by Japan will benefit global dairy suppliers such as the EU and Oceania, while costing the US dairy export industry billions of dollars in lost sales.

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) entered into force on Dec 30, 2018 and the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) went into effect today, February 1st, 2019. All major dairy suppliers to the Japanese market, including Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Ireland and France, are included in one of these two agreements. Only the United States is missing, after pulling out of TPP negotiations in January, 2017.

Through industry interviews to assess price sensitivity and product substitutability, together with extensive historical data analysis, Meros developed a model to quantify the future economic impact of those agreements on key U.S. dairy products and ingredients over the next two decades. The study showed that the US could double its market share with a level playing field. However, without quick action by the US to regain competitiveness in the market, US dairy exports will be at a strong competitive disadvantage, particularly for cheese, whey and lactose, resulting in lost US sales of $5.4 billion over 21 years.

Now is a particularly critical time for global cheese suppliers to Japan as Japan’s cheese imports are expected to show a 1.6-fold expansion over the next 10 years under CPTPP and JEEPA. As a result, the US dairy industry is supporting further bilateral trade talks with Japan. As USDEC CEO and President Tom Vilsack commented in a January 30th news release, “U.S. dairy farmers and processors strongly support the Administration’s launch of trade talks with Japan. We hope this report provides fresh ammunition to our negotiators about why a strong U.S.-Japan agreement is so important for American agriculture.”

U.S. Dairy Export Council’s release of Meros Consulting’s Analyzing the Impact of the CPTPP and Japan-EU EPA on US Dairy Exports to Japan can be downloaded here:

Analyzing the Impact of the CPTPP and Japan-EU EPA on US Dairy Exports to Japan