21 Feb

Former IFC-Executive Takuro Kimura Joins Meros as Strategic Advisor

Posted by Team Meros in News

Meros Consulting is pleased to announce that Takuro Kimura, former executive at the International Finance Corporation (IFC), has joined Meros as Strategic Advisor.

“We are thrilled to have Takuro join our team and be able to share his extensive experience in public and private sector agribusiness investment, particularly in the context of investment in agriculture development in emerging economies,” says Meros’ Managing Director Chisa Ogura.

Takuro’s previous career at the IFC spanned two decades and included posts in Washington, Tokyo and Cairo. The IFC is the private sector arm of the World Bank Group, offering investment and advisory services to support private-sector development in emerging markets. Takuro was Global Head, Manufacturing from 2011—2014 and had previously held senior positions covering agribusiness, services and energy (oil, gas and mining) across all continents.

Most recently, after returning from Washington to Tokyo, Takuro was the Managing Director at Orix Corporation’s Global Business Development and Investment Group, focusing on investment in emerging economies with a focus on agriculture value chains, healthcare and related logistics

“We have gotten to know Takuro over the past three years, and have been impressed with his energy, insightful business perspectives and interest in developing teams and people. He brings valuable, practical insights from past investment projects, both on the factors for success and the risks to anticipate,” said Lucia Vancura, Meros’ Director of Operations and Global Markets.

“I believe food and agriculture is the cornerstone of global sustainability. Smart investments and business innovations can create significant social and economic impact, “ said Takuro Kimura. “Meros has solid sectoral experience and a strong commitment to identify business and investment opportunities for its customers. I look forward to working with Meros to support the creation of business opportunities, especially for Japanese companies, in emerging markets in Asia and beyond.”

Takuro’s experience in bringing public and private sector players together to create value for growing businesses is extensive and he is deeply familiar with the as needs and expectations of investors. Together, we will be focusing on developing strategies to strengthen global food systems and promote economic development along the agricultural supply chain in fast-growing markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, India and Africa.

Takuro is a graduate of Kyoto University’s law faculty, completed graduate work at the Ecole Superieure du Commerce de Paris (ESCP) and received his MBA from ISA-HEC in France. He began his career at Sanwa Bank in Tokyo and later joined the IFC-managed Africa Enterprise Fund, focusing on SME investment consulting in Sub-Saharan Africa, based in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.

01 Feb

New study projects CPTPP and Japan-EU trade agreements will reduce US dairy exports to Japan and boost competitors

Posted by Team Meros in News, Publications

A Meros Consulting study released Wednesday by the U.S. Dairy Export Council projects that the two new trade agreements made by Japan will benefit global dairy suppliers such as the EU and Oceania, while costing the US dairy export industry billions of dollars in lost sales.

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) entered into force on Dec 30, 2018 and the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) went into effect today, February 1st, 2019. All major dairy suppliers to the Japanese market, including Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Ireland and France, are included in one of these two agreements. Only the United States is missing, after pulling out of TPP negotiations in January, 2017.

Through industry interviews to assess price sensitivity and product substitutability, together with extensive historical data analysis, Meros developed a model to quantify the future economic impact of those agreements on key U.S. dairy products and ingredients over the next two decades. The study showed that the US could double its market share with a level playing field. However, without quick action by the US to regain competitiveness in the market, US dairy exports will be at a strong competitive disadvantage, particularly for cheese, whey and lactose, resulting in lost US sales of $5.4 billion over 21 years.

Now is a particularly critical time for global cheese suppliers to Japan as Japan’s cheese imports are expected to show a 1.6-fold expansion over the next 10 years under CPTPP and JEEPA. As a result, the US dairy industry is supporting further bilateral trade talks with Japan. As USDEC CEO and President Tom Vilsack commented in a January 30th news release, “U.S. dairy farmers and processors strongly support the Administration’s launch of trade talks with Japan. We hope this report provides fresh ammunition to our negotiators about why a strong U.S.-Japan agreement is so important for American agriculture.”

U.S. Dairy Export Council’s release of Meros Consulting’s Analyzing the Impact of the CPTPP and Japan-EU EPA on US Dairy Exports to Japan can be downloaded here:

Analyzing the Impact of the CPTPP and Japan-EU EPA on US Dairy Exports to Japan

 

22 Nov

Meros in the Media: The Disappearing US-China Soybean Trade

Posted by Team Meros in News

Meros discusses how China was able to substitute US soybeans so quickly.

Meros’ Lucia Vancura recently chatted with Nathan VanderKlippe of Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper about how China was able to so quickly and completely eliminate US soybean imports in the last few months since the 2018 marketing year started in September. Did they find alternative suppliers? Did they substitute for other feed ingredients?  How could US soybean exports to China, which are 25% of US production, really be substituted out so quickly, particularly since US soybeans are still price competitive with Brazil, Argentina and other sources, despite the 25% tariffs?

The Chinese government may not have explicitly forbidden Chinese traders from importing US soybeans, but as VanderKlippe reports from our conversation “in a country where political favour remains a key factor in corporate success, China’s reach extends deep into the private sector, too.” The Chinese government does not need to issue a ban on buying US soybeans. It just has to send a clear message that avoiding US soybeans, despite the favorable price, is the expected approach.

The full article is behind a paywall but available here:  https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-soybean-trade-shows-resolve-of-china-as-it-pushes-back-on-us-demands/

In the short-term, since September, China has used a variety of tools to make up for the elimination of US soybeans. This has included increased soybeans from Brazil and other countries and increased use of soy protein substitutes, including rapeseed or canola meal, pea and domestic Chinese DDGS. The Chinese government also released new guidelines for a lower-protein swine feed ratio that decreases the amount of soy protein needed (the Chinese soy protein ratio in feed has been much higher than, for example, in the US swine feed ratio because the price of soy has been so reasonable but there is not necessarily a nutritional need for so much soy in China’s swine feed) and China’s major feed mills have agreed to these new standards. Other measures have included releasing soybeans from government stockpiles and using more of their domestic soybeans for feed (rather than food).

Looking at the longer term, China may import some US soybeans later this year to fill the remaining gaps, but their on-going efforts to find alternative suppliers, substitute products and a big-picture effort by China to invest and expand in agriculture supply channels world-wide are only opening more opportunities and risk diversification for Chinese traders. The longer the trade war goes on, the more chance Chinese traders will more permanently replace US soybeans in their trading portfolio.

 

Meros Consulting is a Tokyo-based strategic business advisory. We work with companies and governments globally to advising on trade dynamics and support business development in food and agriculture industries.